Update: Sabato on Obama’s Jewish vote
A recent Political Insider item on University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato’s new book, “The Year of Obama: How Barack Obama Won the White House,” produced a flurry of email.
Why, readers asked, does Sabato put the Jewish vote for Obama at 83 percent while earlier newspaper accounts had it at 78 percent?
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Either number qualifies as overwhelming, but you can understand why Jewish Republicans are sensitive about these things and why Jewish Democrats are hopeful.
I put the question to Sabato before posting the initial item, and here’s his emailed response:
“The final adjusted exit poll results for the category ‘white Jewish’ list 83 percent for Barack Obama. Since they are only 2-3 percent of the population, the margin of error is substantial. Other surveys may well have measured the Obama support at 78 percent. That is only a 5 percent differential, and the margins of error here are easily greater than that. The reasonable conclusion is that Obama received ‘more than three-quarters’ of the Jewish vote. The precise percentage will always be somewhat elusive, as it is for all small subcategories of voters.
Statistics and polls: You gotta love ‘em.
Tags: Jewish vote, Obama, Sabato
April 29th, 2009 at 11:37 am
The exit poll that Sabato is relying on is worthless. See the Forward story before the election
http://www.forward.com/articles/14475/
Whether it’s 78 or 83 or 12, none of these numbers are actually a reliable way of gauging the Jewish vote.
The bottom line is we have no idea what percentage of Jews voted for Obama. We have some idea of what a random sampling of Jews in a key part of Florida voted for Obama.
It’s time to stop reporting phony numbers and admit that the actual Jewish vote percentage is a big question mark.